Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Trigger a Massive 'Upgrade Cycle,' Says Gary Black — But This One Problem Could Cap 'Incremental Earnings' for 6 Months

Investor Gary Black predicts Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL)/a> newly launched foldable device will start a hardware purchasing cycle, but production limits may curb incremental earnings for possibly six months.

Market Impact and Demographics

Apple unveiled its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, starting at $1,999 on Wednesday. Black predicts the phone will "usher in a new iPhone upgrade cycle" and "substantially increase" Apple's average selling price.

A hardware purchasing cycle or an upgrade cycle refers to a period where a large number of consumers replace their old electronic devices with new ones at roughly the same time.

Black expects the device will become a "must-have product" for "20- and 30-somethings," noting that this demographic will seek the phone as a "status symbol" and to take and show pictures and videos. Furthermore, he said that the folding form factor allows business travelers to carry "one small device rather than two."/p> div class="bz-read-next-block" data-variant="card" data-news-mode="manual" >

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Hardware and Production Risks

The iPhone Duo features a 7.6-inch inner display. Apple redesigned iOS around the foldable form factor, allowing apps and content to automatically scale between the outer and inner displays.

Black stated that the "absence of a crease" when unfolded gives Apple a "huge advantage" over competitors. However, Black warned that "limited production" of the foldable phone will restrict "incremental earnings for potentially 6 months."

He also stated the company faces an "unknown cannibalization of iPad sales" following the release. Preorders for the iPhone Duo open on Oct. 16, with store availability beginning Oct. 23./p> figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x">div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">

Prediction: New $AAPL fold phone will become a must-have product for 20- and 30-somethings, will usher in a new iPhone upgrade cycle, substantially increase iPhone ASP, and allows business travelers to bring one small device rather than two. br>br>Most 20-30 somethings will want the… pic.twitter.com/cYTa3oGydD/p>— Gary Black (@garyblack00) September 10, 2026/blockquote> /div>

Expert Reactions

Other industry figures also reacted to the launch. Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman praised the device, stating, "Just take my money."

Creative Strategies CEO Ben Bajarin expressed excitement regarding developer possibilities for the new form factor.

Analyst Gene Munster raised his fiscal 2027 iPhone revenue forecast for the Duo from 5% to 10%, stating Apple may have regained its "device design mojo." Even skeptic Jason Calacanis admitted he would "probably spend $2K" on Apple's version./p> figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x">div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">

I went into today's $AAPL event thinking the foldable iPhone was going to be a rounding error for growth. After seeing the iPhone Duo, I’ve changed my mind. pic.twitter.com/RYh7FK6kG0/p>— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) September 9, 2026/blockquote> /div>

How Has AAPL Performed in 2026?

Price Action: At the last check, the AAPL stock was trading 0.88% higher in premarket trading on Thursday. It is up 15.99% year-to-date, and up 20.90% over the last six months. It closed 0.28% lower at $315.34 per share on Wednesday.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that AAPL maintains a strong price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a moderate growth score./p> figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized">/figure> div class="bz-read-next-block" data-variant="card" data-news-mode="manual" >

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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